Short answer
Yes, solar panels pay for themselves without net metering too. With 10 panels facing south and 3,500 kWh of consumption the payback period is 9.3 years, including a new inverter. Households with higher consumption do much better (6.6 years at 7,000 kWh), small households worse (10.9 years at 2,500 kWh).
Why the payback period changes in 2027
With net metering, every kWh you exported was offset against a kWh you bought later, so each kWh of solar power was worth as much as grid power. From 2027 you only get the feed-in compensation for exported power, minus your supplier's feed-in costs: €0.035 per kWh in our default calculation, against €0.30 for power you use yourself.
The saving therefore depends mostly on the share of your solar power you use directly. In our example that is 29%, worth €333 a year. Everything else together brings only €94.
Payback period by consumption
The same 10 panels (€3,800); only the household's electricity consumption differs.
| Consumption a year | Production a year | Used directly | Saving a year | Payback period | Net over the lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,500 kWh | 3,806 kWh | 23% | €365 | 10.9 years | €3,212 |
| 3,500 kWh | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €428 | 9.3 years | €4,622 |
| 5,000 kWh | 3,806 kWh | 37% | €507 | 7.8 years | €6,392 |
| 7,000 kWh | 3,806 kWh | 45% | €591 | 6.6 years | €8,282 |
Higher consumption means you use more solar power yourself, and that is worth the most. With a heat pump or an electric car, or if you are often home during the day, panels pay for themselves faster.
Payback period by number of panels
| Panels | Production a year | Used directly | Saving a year | Payback period | Net over the lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2,284 kWh | 41% | €327 | 7.9 years | €4,107 |
| 8 | 3,045 kWh | 34% | €381 | 8.6 years | €4,470 |
| 10 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €428 | 9.3 years | €4,622 |
| 14 | 5,329 kWh | 23% | €511 | 10.5 years | €4,727 |
Small sets pay for themselves fastest, because you use a larger share yourself. Larger sets earn more over the full lifetime, but each extra panel brings less than the one before: most of its output is exported.
Payback period by electricity price
| Electricity price per kWh | Production a year | Used directly | Saving a year | Payback period | Net over the lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €0.25 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €372 | 10.7 years | €3,378 |
| €0.30 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €428 | 9.3 years | €4,622 |
| €0.35 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €483 | 8.2 years | €5,865 |
| €0.40 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €539 | 7.3 years | €7,109 |
The more expensive electricity is, the more each kWh you use yourself saves. If prices rise by 2% a year, the payback period is 8.6 years; if they fall by 2% a year, 10.2 years.
Count on a new inverter
Panels last about 25 years, an inverter 12 years on average. Replacing it costs about €900 for 8 panels. Without that cost you would end up €1,150 better off. If your payback period falls around the replacement, it shifts by a few years: keep that in mind if your result is close to 12 years.
Work out the payback period for your home →
Sources
- Milieu Centraal, Cost and yield of solar panels (in Dutch). Price and yield of 6, 8 and 10 panels of 435 Wp (€2,500 / 2,300 kWh, €3,200 / 3,000 kWh, €3,800 / 3,800 kWh), about 30% direct self-consumption, a 25-year lifetime and about 600 kg CO2 saved a year with 8 panels after production.
- Milieu Centraal, Maintaining and replacing solar panels (in Dutch). Manufacturers usually guarantee 80% of the power after 25 years; an inverter lasts 12 years on average and replacing it costs about €900 for 8 panels.
- Rijksoverheid, Net metering ends in 2027 (in Dutch). End of net metering on 1 January 2027 and the minimum feed-in compensation of 50% of the bare supply rate until 2030.
- Energievergelijk.nl, Net feed-in compensation per supplier from 1 January 2027 (in Dutch). Net compensation (compensation minus feed-in costs) at large suppliers: roughly 3 to 4 cents per kWh, autumn 2026.