Updated for 2027: calculated without net metering
Solar panel calculator: what do they earn after 2027?
Enter your consumption, the number of panels and your energy contract and see what solar panels earn in the Netherlands now that net metering ends. With feed-in costs, a new inverter and an hourly simulation of a full year.
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Result
Pays for itself comfortably
You recover the cost of the panels after 9.3 years, before the inverter needs replacing. Over 25 years you are €4,622 better off.
Payback period
9.3 years
With electricity prices 2.5 percentage points a year higher or lower: 8.4 years to 10.4 years.
Saving in the first year
€428
Lower energy bill, without net metering.
Net over 25 years
€4,622
€9,572 in savings minus €3,800 purchase and €1,150 for the inverter.
Return per year
8.0%
Comparable with interest on savings.
Over the years
Cumulative result after purchase, including inverter replacement.
- Expected
- Range (± 2.5 percentage points)
Year
Show as table
| Year | Expected | 2.5 percentage points lower prices a year | 2.5 percentage points higher prices a year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase | -€3,800 | -€3,800 | -€3,800 |
| Year 1 | -€3,374 | -€3,374 | -€3,374 |
| Year 2 | -€2,952 | -€2,963 | -€2,942 |
| Year 3 | -€2,534 | -€2,565 | -€2,502 |
| Year 4 | -€2,120 | -€2,181 | -€2,056 |
| Year 5 | -€1,709 | -€1,810 | -€1,603 |
| Year 6 | -€1,302 | -€1,451 | -€1,142 |
| Year 7 | -€898 | -€1,105 | -€674 |
| Year 8 | -€499 | -€770 | -€199 |
| Year 9 | -€103 | -€446 | €283 |
| Year 10 | €290 | -€134 | €774 |
| Year 11 | €679 | €168 | €1,272 |
| Year 12 | €1,064 | €460 | €1,778 |
| Year 13 | €297 | -€408 | €1,141 |
| Year 14 | €675 | -€136 | €1,663 |
| Year 15 | €1,050 | €128 | €2,193 |
| Year 16 | €1,422 | €382 | €2,732 |
| Year 17 | €1,791 | €628 | €3,279 |
| Year 18 | €2,156 | €865 | €3,835 |
| Year 19 | €2,518 | €1,095 | €4,399 |
| Year 20 | €2,876 | €1,316 | €4,972 |
| Year 21 | €3,232 | €1,530 | €5,555 |
| Year 22 | €3,584 | €1,737 | €6,146 |
| Year 23 | €3,933 | €1,937 | €6,747 |
| Year 24 | €4,279 | €2,131 | €7,357 |
| Year 25 | €4,622 | €2,317 | €7,977 |
Where does your solar power go?
Production in the first year, split into direct own use and feed-in.
- Used directly
- Fed into the grid
Year 1
- Production per year
- 3,806 kWh
- Direct self-consumption
- 29%
- Taken from the grid
- 2,389 kWh3,500 kWh without panels
- CO₂ saved
- 761 kg a yearAfter deducting the emissions of making the panels.
How the saving is built up
| Electricity you no longer buy1,111 kWh × €0.30 | €333 |
|---|---|
| Feed-in revenue (after feed-in costs)2,695 kWh × €0.035 | €94 |
| Saving per year | €428 |
And with a home battery?
A 5 kWh battery (indicative price €3,500) raises your direct self-consumption from 29% to 60% and saves €251 more a year. On its own, the battery then pays for itself in about 14 years.
Indication from 2027, without net metering, based on average profiles and Dutch weather. Not financial advice.
Are solar panels worth it from 2027?
Short answer
Yes, for most households. With 10 panels facing south (3,806 kWh a year) and 3,500 kWh of consumption you save about €428 a year from 2027. At a price of €3,800 they pay for themselves in 9.3 years, including a new inverter.
Without net metering it is all about what you use directly: that brings €333 a year, feed-in only €94. More panels than you need therefore pay off less than they used to.
How many panels pay off best?
Calculated for 3,500 kWh of consumption a year, 435 Wp panels facing south, an electricity price of €0.30 per kWh and a net feed-in compensation of €0.035 per kWh.
| Panels | Price | Production a year | Used directly | Saving a year | Payback period | Net over 25 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | €2,500 | 2,284 kWh | 41% | €327 | 7.9 years | €4,107 |
| 8 | €3,150 | 3,045 kWh | 34% | €381 | 8.6 years | €4,470 |
| 10 | €3,800 | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €428 | 9.3 years | €4,622 |
| 14 | €5,100 | 5,329 kWh | 23% | €511 | 10.5 years | €4,727 |
Indicative prices including installation and 0% VAT; fixed or variable contract, without net metering.
South or east-west?
South produces the most. East-west produces less, but more in the morning and evening, when you also use electricity. Without net metering that matters: every kWh you use yourself is worth €0.30; an exported kWh only €0.035.
| Orientation | Production a year | Used directly | Saving a year | Payback period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | 3,806 kWh | 29% | €428 | 9.3 years |
| South-east or south-west | 3,616 kWh | 30% | €415 | 9.6 years |
| East and west | 3,159 kWh | 35% | €400 | 9.9 years |
| East or west | 3,159 kWh | 34% | €397 | 10.0 years |
10 panels, same price; roof pitch 35 degrees.
Feed-in costs and your contract
From 2027 many suppliers charge for electricity you feed in. With the default values the payback period is 9.3 years; without feed-in costs it would be 6.8 years.
On a dynamic contract you get the hourly price for exported electricity. That price is low precisely when the sun shines, and sometimes negative; we then switch the inverter off. In our default example a dynamic contract saves €343 a year, against €428 on a fixed or variable contract.
How the calculator works
A year, hour by hour
For all 8,760 hours of the year we calculate your solar power with Dutch weather (KNMI normals for De Bilt) and your consumption with a profile that fits your household.
With and without panels
What you use directly, you no longer buy. What is left over is exported at the feed-in compensation minus feed-in costs. Nothing is netted.
Over the full lifetime
We add up the saving over 25 years, with the panels' yield loss and a new inverter after 12 years. That gives the payback period, net result and return.
Solar panel guides
Solar payback period
How quickly do solar panels pay for themselves in the Netherlands now that net metering ends? Worked out per number of panels, consumption and price.
Read more →Feed-in costs
Feed-in costs and a low feed-in compensation after 2027: what they do to the savings from solar panels in the Netherlands, and how to limit the damage.
Read more →East-west or south
South produces the most, east-west matches your consumption better. Which earns more without net metering? Worked out per orientation and consumption.
Read more →Combining with a home battery
A battery lets you use more of your own solar power, but it costs money too. The calculator above shows what a battery adds; the home battery calculator works it out in detail.
Frequently asked questions about solar panels
Are solar panels still worth it after 2027, without net metering?
Yes, for most households. With 10 panels facing south and 3,500 kWh of consumption you save about €428 a year from 2027. At a price of €3,800 the payback period is 9.3 years, including a new inverter after 12 years.
Most of that saving comes from the electricity you use directly yourself (€333 a year). Exported electricity only brings €0.035 per kWh after feed-in costs.
How many solar panels should I get?
The more panels, the smaller the share you use directly. At 3,500 kWh of consumption you use 41% of your solar power yourself with 6 panels, and 23% with 14 panels. The payback period is then 7.9 years with 6 and 10.5 years with 14 panels.
If you expect a heat pump or an electric car, extra panels can pay off: your consumption rises and you use more yourself. Switch them on in the calculator to work it out.
East-west or south: which is better?
South produces the most. In our model east-west produces 17% less, but spreads production better over the day: you use 35% yourself instead of 29%. Without net metering that narrows the gap in savings (€400 versus €428 a year).
What do feed-in costs do to the payback period?
Many suppliers charge for electricity you feed in. In the default calculation (€0.09 compensation and €0.055 costs per kWh) the payback period is 9.3 years. Without feed-in costs it would be 6.8 years. So compare feed-in costs when you choose a contract.
Do I pay VAT on solar panels?
No. Since 1 January 2023 solar panels on or near a home carry 0% VAT, so there is no VAT to reclaim either. There is no national subsidy.
Sources
- Milieu Centraal, Cost and yield of solar panels (in Dutch). Price and yield of 6, 8 and 10 panels of 435 Wp (€2,500 / 2,300 kWh, €3,200 / 3,000 kWh, €3,800 / 3,800 kWh), about 30% direct self-consumption, a 25-year lifetime and about 600 kg CO2 saved a year with 8 panels after production.
- Milieu Centraal, Maintaining and replacing solar panels (in Dutch). Manufacturers usually guarantee 80% of the power after 25 years; an inverter lasts 12 years on average and replacing it costs about €900 for 8 panels.
- Milieu Centraal, Solar panels: how suitable is your roof? (in Dutch). Yield per orientation and pitch (south-west 5% and west 25% below south at 45 degrees; east-west spreads production over the day; on a flat roof east-west yields about 10% less per panel but more panels fit) and 0% VAT on solar panels on homes since 1 January 2023.
- Rijksoverheid, Net metering ends in 2027 (in Dutch). End of net metering on 1 January 2027 and the minimum feed-in compensation of 50% of the bare supply rate until 2030.
- Energievergelijk.nl, Net feed-in compensation per supplier from 1 January 2027 (in Dutch). Net compensation (compensation minus feed-in costs) at large suppliers: roughly 3 to 4 cents per kWh, autumn 2026.
- Ministerie van Financiën, Tax Plan 2027 (in Dutch). Proposed energy tax on electricity in 2027: 8.80 cents per kWh excluding VAT in the first two brackets up to 10,000 kWh (2026: €0.09161). Bill from September 2026, not yet passed by parliament.
- KNMI, Climate normals for De Bilt 1991–2020. Average global radiation per month (364.8 kJ/cm² a year, converted 1,013 kWh/m²) and average temperature per month.
- TenneT, Annual Market Update 2025. Average Dutch day-ahead price of €87 per MWh in 2025 and 584 hours with a negative price.